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Monday, December 1, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top - Week 4 of November 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 Nov'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 28 Nov'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 28 Nov'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • October Candle the Green Hanging Man #M1, produces a Bullish Continuation in November.  
  • Index close to the Medium Term Channel Top #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls after defending the Month channel bottom on the EOM #M1, almost reach the Week Channel Top #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • Daily 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stay deflected Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 still in the 60s, divergence to price seen #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls earlier popped out of the Broadening top on the EOD after keeping above the daily 5 EMA all the way from the Channel bottom i.e. for 31 days. 
    Bears hold back the index near the weekly channel top (orange) #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Hanging Man (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) active in the Long Term screen #M1.
    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up  - to be watched for re-forming top #D1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Weekly Channel Top #W1 and current All Time High (ATH) are resistances.
    • The 5 EMA on the daily charts and on weekly charts (2040) are the supports, that the Bears would want to break #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • The Index is currently above all the MAs that we track.
    Indicators:
    • TSI holds above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after popping above the 'Broadening Top' on the EOD #D1, look to get above the Medium Term Channel Top #W1.
    Bears look to get below the elusive 5 EMA on the Day Chart #D1 after 30+ days.


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Pause ? - Week 4 of November 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 28 Nov'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls after the kick off from the Kumo, get above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen and make it rain ATHs #W2.

    Chikou Span momentum slows #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen still in Touch and they level out #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap is flat #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls bounced off the Kumo and used the Chikou Span deflection, to make it rain ATHs, as momentum slows # W2. Bears look to get back in the game.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, starting with a move to below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
    Chikou Span dipping towards the Price line is the Bear ask #W1.
    Bulls demand a deflection of the Tenkan Sen to above the Kijun Sen #W2.


    Wrap: Bears look to move below the Tenkan Sen #W2 - Bulls see a Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen next #W1.


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Skirmish Line Take-off - Week 1 of December 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Nov'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Nov'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 28 Nov'14




    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)



    Patterns:
    • Bulls avoid a Long Term Evening Star #M1.
    • Old EOD Channel Top (blue) was again the Skirmish line for Bulls and Bears - Bulls bounce the index on this line, for a Take off, towards the red channel top last week #D1
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index yo-yo'd about the old EOD channel top (Blue) and again used the Daily 13 SMA as support last week #D1. R1 on the Monthly Pivot #M1, was resistance broken.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, stay Bullishly crossed after the mild deflection of the previous week #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA meet again in deflection D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls are dominant across all screens, index nearing critical channel tops.
    Bears again lose advantage at the skirmish line, but hold below the EOD channel top #D1. 




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • October candle the Closing White Marubozu (Study Links herehere or elsewhere),  produces good results for the Bulls in November #M1.
    • Old EOD Channel Top (blue) is now the support that the Bulls need to stay above, to be able to carry on to the red channel top #D1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the Wall for December (8494) and the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
    • Bears look to get the Index below the old EOD channel top (blue) #D1.. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are still converging #D1.
    • Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD needs to be watched for #D1. 
    Indicators:
    • STS has stayed in the overbought for 3 Quarters now, reflects Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above the blue EOD channel top, Bulls aim for the red EOD channel resistance #D1.
    Bears want to see the Index below the Wall for December 8494.



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bull Roll - Week 1 of December 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 28 Nov'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls reach higher with an ATH, above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap even and the lines are climbing #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are also reaching up with a steady gap between them #W2


    Wrap: Index uses the resistance of the last high, moves above the Tenkan Sen and is on a new ATH spree 
    #W2




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few months #W1.
    A Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflection is on, albeit with a large gap #W2


    Wrap: Bears wish to get t
    he index moving towards the Tenkan Sen, Bulls focus on making new ATHs  #W2.