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Monday, December 8, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top Bounce - Week 2 of December 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 05 Dec'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 05 Dec'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 05 Dec'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Index close to the Medium Term Channel Top #W1.
  • Index bounces off the top of the 'Broadening Top' on the Day Charts #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls hemmed in be the Week Channel Top #W1. Takes support on the 'Broadening Top' on the Day Charts #D1 and 5 EMA on the EOW as studied #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • Daily 5 EMA and 13 SMA, poised to cross Bearishly or deflect Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 still in the 60s, divergence to price apparant #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears finally got the index to taste life below the 5 EMA for one day #D1. 
    Bulls make new ATH after bouncing off the  'Broadening Top' on the Day Charts,#D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up  - to be watched for re-forming top #D1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Weekly Channel Top #W1 and current All Time High (ATH), continue to be resistances.
    • The 5 EMA on the daily charts and on weekly charts (2052) are the supports, that the Bears would want to break #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • The Index is currently above all the MAs that we track.
    Indicators:
    • TSI holds above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after popping above the current 'Broadening Top' on the EOD #D1, look to get above the Medium Term Channel Top #W1.
    Bears look to reforming the 'Broadening Top' on the Day Charts, making the latest high the 5th Touch #D1, by breaking below the current top.


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Separation? - Week 2 of December 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 05 Dec'14




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls after the kick off from the Kumo, get above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen and continue to make it rain ATHs #W2.

    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen still on top of each other and Separation is expected anytime now #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap is flat #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls bounced off the Kumo and used the Chikou Span deflection, to make it rain ATHs # W2. Bears pray for a red week.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, starting with a move to below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
    Chikou Span dipping towards the Price line is the Bear ask #W1.
    Bulls anticipate that the Tenkan Sen will move above the Kijun Sen in a Bullish deflection, even if the Index itself falls to the Tenkan Sen #W2.


    Wrap: Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are on top of each other -  the Bulls look for a deflection while the Bears hope for a Bearish Cross #W2.


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Dark Cloud Cover - Week 2 of December 2014.


    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 05 Dec'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 05 Dec'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 05 Dec'14




    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




    Patterns:
    • Last week's candle forms a 'Dark Cloud Cover' Candle Pattern over the previous week #W1.
    • December Candle takes support on the Month Pivot #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Last week, the Bulls took support on the Month Pivot #M1 (blue line). The index moved slightly (10 points) above the November High resistance, precipitating the 'Dark Cloud Cover' #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, look to deflect bullishly or cross bearishly this week #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA cross bearishly #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls slip below the Daily 5 EMA, Bears manage to produce a Dark Cloud Cover #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Dark Cloud Cover on the Weekly Charts need to be watched for further action (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the Wall for December (8494) and the Month Pivot #M1.
    • Resistances that the index needs to take out for more upside, are the ATH and EOD channel top #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are still converging #D1.
    • Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOD, to be watched for #D1. 
    Indicators:
    • STS, staying in the overbought for 3 Quarters now, reflects Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above the blue EOD channel top, Bulls aim for the red EOD channel top #D1.
    Bears need to use the Dark Cloud Cover to see the Index below the Wall for December 8494.



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears edge in - Week 2 of December 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 05 Dec'14




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls pause with a red week near the ATH #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap even and the lines are climbing #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are also reaching up with a narrowing gap between them #W2


    Wrap: Index after moving above the Tenkan Sen pauses near the ATH 
    #W2




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few months #W1.
    Bulls expect a Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflection at current orientation, even if index falls back to the Tenkan Sen  #W2


    Wrap: Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen approach each other -  and the Bulls look for a deflection while the Bears hope for a Bearish Cross 
    #W2.