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Monday, December 15, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top Break - Week 3 of December 2014.


S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 12 Dec'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 12 Dec'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 12 Dec'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Index turns back down from the Medium Term Channel Top #W1.
  • Index re-forms 'Broadening Top' on the Day Charts #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls find support at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1, after bears re-form the 'Broadening Top' on the EOD #D1 as studied last week.
Moving Averages:  
    • Daily 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 back to the 50s, divergence to price apparant #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears make up for long absence with a fall all the way to the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1. 
    Bulls lose 6 week's gain in one week, and scramble for support #W11.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up  re-formed top - bottom is near the 76.4% retrace marked #D3.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Megaphone Top #W1 and current All Time High (ATH), continue to be resistances.
    • The 13 SMA on the weekly charts (2002) and the 200 SMA on the EOD are the supports, that the Bears would want to break #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts cross bearishly below 1912 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI holds slips below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after a massive slide, look to consolidate on supports above the 2000 mark and head back to the ATH #W1.
    Bears smell honey and would want to press towards the 1700 zone and the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #D3.



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Separation ! - Week 3 of December 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 12 Dec'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls after the kick off from the Kumo, make new ATHs before falling back towards the Tenkan Sen #W2.

    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen still on top of each other and Separation is expected anytime now #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap is flat #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls bounced off the Kumo made new ATHs before the Bear prayer is answered with a massive red week #W2 .




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, starting with a move to below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
    Chikou Span dipping to the Price line is the Bear ask #W1.
    Bulls continue to expect that the Tenkan Sen will move above the Kijun Sen in a Bullish deflection, even if the Index itself falls to the Tenkan Sen #W2.


    Wrap: Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are on top of each other - Bulls look for a Deflection while the Bears hope for a Cross #W2.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Dark Cloud Cover Action - Week 3 of December 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 12 Dec'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 12 Dec'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 12 Dec'14




    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




    Patterns:
    • Last week's 'Dark Cloud Cover' Candle Pattern gives the Bears a massive break to the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
    • Last two candles on the EOM screen, form a Bearish Engulfing as of now #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Resisted near the ATH, index moves all the way down, to take support near the monthly 5 EMA, weekly 13 SMA, daily 50 SMA and the Mid line of the EOD Channel.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, crosses bearishly last week #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA stay crossed bearishly and heads for the zero line #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls manage a halt near multiple supports that we track, Bears exploit the Dark Cloud Cover to take control of the short term screen #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Dark Cloud Cover on the Weekly Charts active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    • Long Term Bearish engulfing in progress, to be watched until month end #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bears want to break below, are the Monthly 5 EMA (8110), Weekly 13 SMA (8203) and the R2 of the Month Pivot #M1.
    • Resistances that the Bulls want to get above are the 5 EMA on the EOW (8317) #W1 and the Wall for December (8494).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are converging #D1.
    • Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW with touch at 7767, to be watched for #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS, staying in the overbought for 3 Quarters+ now, reflects Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above the blue EOD channel mid line, Bulls aim for the red EOD channel top #D1.
    Bears seek to use the Dark Cloud Cover to push the Index below the 5 EMA on the Long Term screen #M1.


    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tryst with Tenkan Sen - Week 3 of December 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 12 Dec'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls dive to the Tenkan Sen even as the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflect bullishly, exactly as studied last week #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap even and the lines are flat #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen have a broad/distant deflection (see earlier deflections in the chart above) #W2


    Wrap: Index after pausing near the ATH dives to the Tenkan Sen 
    #W2




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few weeks #W1.
    Bulls expect the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflection to remain at current orientation, even if index slips below these lines this week  #W2


    Wrap: Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen approach each other -  the Bulls look for a deflection back to the ATH while the Bears hope for a Cross directed at the Kumo 
    #W2.