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Monday, December 29, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Inside Up - Week 1 of January 2015.













Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami on the Medium Term becomes a 'Three Inside up' #W1.
  • Monthly Candle earlier resembled a Dragon Fly Doji, with last week's up move, its more of a 'Hanging Man' (as of now), bear hope stays alive #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls stay above the 5 EMA on the Daily Charts all of last week and make a new ATH, bears hold back the index at the Broadening Top Pattern's upper line #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • Daily 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stay crossed Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS 34 3 4, bounces at the oversold line and moves into the over bought #D2.

    Wrap:
    Bears hold back the index at the Broadening Top Pattern's upper line #D1.
    Bulls trigger a 3 inside up and make a new ATH #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up re-formed top - bottom is near the 76.4% retrace mark.
    • 'Three Inside Up' is active  (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    • Hanging Man worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere)  #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Megaphone Top #D1 and EOW Channel Top, are levels the Bulls look to take out.
    • The 5 EMA on the weekly charts (2061) and previous week's close i.e. 2071 are the supports, that the Bears would want to get below #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts cross bearishly below 1906 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls make a 'Three Inside up', and now focus on the EOW channel top #W1.
    Bears look to fight back from the Broadening Top Pattern's upper line #D1.


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Separation & Kick Off - Week 1 of January 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen after Separation the previous week, kick index off to a new ATH #W2.
    Bulls make good use of the support at the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap widens #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls kick off from the Tenkan Sen #W2, Bears after making a lower low (October'14), lose the plot, thanks to the Kumo #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, starting with a move to below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, on Bear Agenda in early 2015 #W2.
    Chikou Span Cross/Deflection of the Index can show direction going forward #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look for higher ATHs going forward, while as Bears seek life below the Tenkan Sen in 2015 #W2.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave - Week 1 of January 2015.











    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




    Patterns:
    • Last two candles on the Month screen, form a 'Bearish Engulfing' as of now #M1.
    • Last Candle on the Medium Term Screen is a 'High Wave' #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index finds support, bang on the R2 of the Monthly Pivot.
    • Day Channel's blue mid-line, was clear resistance.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, touch for cross or deflection at the start of next week #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA stay crossed bearishly and below the zero line - histogram ticks higher #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls and Bears slug it out to a deuce and produce a 'High Wave' - Bears control the Short Term Screen while the Bulls hold on to the Medium Term Screen by a whisker #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • 'Dark Cloud Cover' on the Monthly Charts triggers, if December Closes below 8468 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
    • 'Bearish Engulfing' on the Monthly Charts triggers, if Month Closes below 8348 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
    • 'High Wave' on the Weekly Charts is active ((Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bears want to break below this week, are the Monthly 5 EMA (8110) and Wall for January (8174) #M1.
    • Resistances that the Bulls want to get above, are the numbers noted in 'Patterns' above.
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently in converging mode #D1.
    • Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW will happen, if index closes the week above 8151 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS, moving below the overbought, would pause the 3+ quarter long Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above 8151, Bulls hope the 'High Wave' Candle #W1, gives them a Bullish Continuation for now #W1.
    Bears seek to remain below critical levels going into the New Year and get below the October'14 low on the EOD #D1.


    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Range - Week 1 of January 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls again attempt to leave the Tenkan Sen behind, even as the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflect bullishly, some more #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen continue broad/distant deflection (see earlier deflections in the chart above) #W2


    Wrap: Index Ranges between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen 
    #W2



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' converging will be bad for the Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more weeks #W1.
    Bears seek to move the Tenkan Sen below the Kijun Sen and take out the last Index low #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls Seek life above the Tenkan Sen while Bears look at moving the index below the Kijun Send and heading towards the Kumo 
    #W2.