Monday, December 28, 2015

US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Handle Channel - Week 5 of December 2015.











Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
.
  • The combination of the Big 'W' and the new Day Channel #D1, make a neat 'Cup and handle' pattern. Price oscillating in the Handle (or Day Channel) #D1 for the past couple of weeks.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index again took off from support at the Channel bottom on the Day Chart #D1 - it  again faced resistance at the daily 34 MVWAP #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the Weekly Screen remains crossed bearishly, with the index below 2088 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, above the 50s  #W2.  


    Wrap:
    Bears again hold the index to a lower high #D1.
    Bulls keep index in the 'Handle' of the 'Cup and Handle' pattern #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • The 'W' pattern on the Day Chart is still in play (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    • A 'Cup and Handle' pattern is active on the charts #D1, #W1 & #M1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) so long as a Handle is viable on any relevant time frame.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Day Channel bottom (pink) #D1 is support.  Index Resistance for a Bull break through is the is the Day Channel's Top #D1,
    Moving Averages:
    • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
    Indicators:
    • STS in middle ground #D2.


    Wrap:

    Bulls hope for rewards from the big 'W' pattern #D1, with a breakout from the ATH #M1.

    Bears push for a breakdown at the handle or the Day Channel #D1..


    India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Piercing rewards - Week 5 of December 2015.











    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

    Patterns:
    • The previous week, the index showed the Bulls a 'Piercing Pattern', last week saw rewards for the Bulls - a green week #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index found support around the week channel bottom #W1, with resistance below the daily 50 SMA #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stay crossed Bullishly on the Day Chart #D1.
    Indicators:
    • On the week charts the STS #W1, continues to dwell in the over sold zone, despite the recent green on the screen.

    Wrap:

    Bulls take off from support at the Week Channel's bottom and  enjoy the rewards of the Piercing Pattern #W1.
    Bears defend the Daily 50 SMA #D1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Piercing Pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active on the Medium Term Chart #W1.
    • The Shooting Star, active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) on the Month Screen #M1, needs attention as we head to the month end.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index has immediate support at the S2 of the Month Pivot #M1. Resistance is at the daily 50 SMA #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    Indicators:
    • The STS is in the oversold, a concern for the Bulls #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bears seek to shoot the index below the Week Channel bottom (green) line #W1.
    Bulls aim for life above the daily 50 SMA #D1.


    Brent Crude Oil - Ichimoku Study - Pause - Week 5 of December 2015.




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Bulls get a pause after the new low with a green week #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
    Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, steady #W2.

    Wrap: 

    After the Index makes a lower low, Bulls get a pause with a green week.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span reflects the green week - its a long way from the price line  #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide at #W3 & above the last Price point, making a thick Kumo - and a strong resistance to an up-move, when we get there #W3.
    Senoku Span A & B, headed for a cross or deflection with these lines getting closer #W1.


    Wrap:

    Bears look to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen, and make some more lower lows #W2.
    An oversold bounce or a bullish cross of the Senoku Span A & B #W3, is the next Bull hope.

    Monday, December 21, 2015

    US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Cup and Handle?! - Week 4 of December 2015.









    Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    .
    • The combination of the Big 'W' and the new Day Channel #D1, make a neat 'Cup and handle' pattern.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index again took support at the Channel bottom of the Day Chart #D1 - it faced resistance at the daily 34 MVWAP #D1.
    Moving Averages:  
      • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the Weekly Screen poised to cross bearishly, with index below 2087 #W1.
      Indicators:
      • RSI 13, now back to the 50s  #W2.  


      Wrap:
      Bears ensure the index does lower highs #D1.
      Bulls keep index in the 'Handle' of the 'Cup and Handle' pattern #D1.




      Looking forward into this Week:

      Patterns:
      • The 'W' pattern on the Day Chart is still in play (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
      • A 'Cup and Handle' pattern is active on the charts #D1, #W1 & #M1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) so long as a Handle is viable on any relevant time frame.
      Support & Resistance: 
      • Day Channel bottom (pink) #D1 is support.  Index Resistance is the Week Channel's Bottom line (orange) #W1,
      Moving Averages:
      • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
      Indicators:
      • STS perks up from the over bought line #D2.


      Wrap:

      Bulls hope for rewards from the big 'W' pattern #D1, with a breakout from the ATH #M1.

      Bears push for a breakdown at the handle or the Day Channel #D1..


      India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bull Piercing - Week 4 of December 2015.









      Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

      Patterns:
      • The previous week the index hit support at the medium term Channel bottom, last week saw the Bulls celebrate with a green piercing candle #W1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index found support around the previous week's low, with resistance at the 5 EMA Weekly #W1.
      Moving Averages: 
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bullishly on the Day Chart #D1.
      Indicators:
      • On the week charts the STS #W1, continues to dwell in the over sold zone.

      Wrap:

      Bulls take support at the Week Channel's bottom and pierce their way back into the Channel #W1.
      Bears defend the Weekly 5 EMA #W1.





      Looking Forward into this Week:

      Patterns:
      • Piercing Pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhereis active on the Medium Term Chart #W1.
      • Shooting Star, is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Screen #M1 for December.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index has immediate support at the S2 of the Month Pivot #M1. Resistance is at the weekly 50 SMA #W1.
      Moving Averages: 
      Indicators:
      • The STS is in the oversold, a concern for the Bulls #W2.


      Wrap :
      Bears want a weekly close, below the Week Channel bottom (green) line #W1.
      Using the piercing pattern, Bulls aim for the weekly 50 SMA #W1.

      China - SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Resists - Week 4 of December 2015.





      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



      Learning from the Earlier Study: 
      (click here for the previous post)


      Index takes support at the Tenkan Sen, with the Kumo giving precise resistance #W2.

      Chikou Span points to the price line #W1.
      Senkou Span A & B, are crossed Bearishly and diverge #W3.

      Wrap: 

      Index steadies with support around the Tenkan Sen #W2.
      Bear send back the index at the Kumo #W2.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Bearish Senoku Span Cross is active (
      Its called a 'Neutral' Bearish cross, because it occurred when the index was on Neutral territory i.e inside the Kumo) #W3.

      Bears intend to keep the index out of the Kumo #W2,.
      Bulls continue to need the Tenkan Sen support #W2.

       
      Wrap:
      Bears push for a continuation of the down trend, with resistance at the Kumo #W2.
      Bulls seek life in the Kumo with support at the Tenkan Sen W2 .



      Brent Crude Oil - Ichimoku Study - Lower Lows 2 - Week 4 of December 2015.





      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



      Learning from the Earlier Study: 
      (click here for the previous post)

      Bears force an even lower low after the index tests the previous low #W2.

      Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, narrowing #W3.
      Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, steady #W2.

      Wrap: 

      Bears take the index sharply lower after the retest, Index makes a lower low #W2. 




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Bears make an even lower low  #W2.

      Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide at #W3 & above the last Price point, making a thick Kumo - and a strong resistance to an up-move, when we get there #W3.
      Senoku Span A & B, headed for a cross or deflection with these lines getting closer #W1.


      Wrap:

      Bears look to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen, and make some more lower lows #W2.
      A bullish cross of the Senoku Span A & B #W3, is the next Bull hope.



      Say....





      Monday, December 14, 2015

      US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Cup and Handle? - Week 3 of December 2015.











       
      Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


      Patterns:
      .
      • Index after a couple of Dojis, crashes to support #W1.
      • The combination of the Big 'W' and the new Day Channel #D1, make a neat 'Cup and handle' pattern.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index again took support at the Channel bottom of the Day Chart #D1 - it failed to make upward progress from previous week's Doji's close #D1.
      Moving Averages:  
        • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the Weekly Screen poised to cross bearishly or deflect Bullishly #W1.
        Indicators:
        • RSI 13, hesitates and falls at the oversold mark  #W2.  


        Wrap:
        Bears keep the index below the Week Channel bottom (orange) once again #W1.
        Desperate Bulls produce the 'Handle' of the 'Cup and Handle' pattern with the Day Channel action #W1.




        Looking forward into this Week:

        Patterns:
        • The 'W' pattern on the Day Chart is still in play (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
        • A 'Cup and Handle' pattern is active on the charts #D1, #W1 & #M1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) so long as a Handle is viable on any relevant time frame.
        Support & Resistance: 
        • Day Channel bottom (pink) #D1 is support.  Index Resistance is the Week Channel's Bottom line (orange) #W1,
        Moving Averages:
        • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
        Indicators:
        • STS touches the over bought line #D2.


        Wrap:

        Bulls hope for rewards from the big 'W' pattern #D1, with a breakout from the ATH #M1.

        Stoic Bears use the resistance at the Week Channel bottom (orange) #W1 to send the index down #D1 potentially forming a 'Cup and Handle Pattern'.