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Monday, January 5, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Long Term 3 Inside Down ? - Week 2 of January 2015.
















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Medium Term 'Three Inside up' pauses as a Higher Time Frame Pattern goes active #W1.
  • Bear hope up  after November and December Candles form Bearish Harami. Last three Monthly Candles now make a 'Three Inside Down' - for now - #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls manage to stay above the 5 EMA on the Monthly Charts, after bears send back the index from the Broadening Top Pattern's upper line, to below the 5 EMA on the EOW #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • Daily 5 EMA and 13 SMA, poised to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS 34 3 4, slips below the over bought #D2.

    Wrap:
    Bears send back the index at the Broadening Top Pattern's upper line #D1.
    Bulls arrest the fall at the daily MVWAP 34 #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up re-formed top - its bottom is near the Fibonacci 76.4% mark.
    • Bearish Harami is now active on the Long Term Screen and could trigger a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the Day Charts #D1 and the Monthly 5 EMA (2023), are supports the Bulls look stay above.
    • The Megaphone Top #D1 and previous month's close i.e. 2059 are the resistances, that the Bears would want to stay below #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts cross bearishly below 1955 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, holds above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls seek to deny the Bears a Long Term 'Three Inside Down' by getting & staying above 2059 #M1.
    Bears look to stay below the Broadening Top Pattern's upper line and reach the lower line #D1.



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - ATH stop - Week 2 of January 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index pauses near the ATH #W2.
    Tenkan Sen climbs up to near the Price line#W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap widens #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls falter near the All Time High (ATH)#W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, starting with a move to below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
    Chikou Span Cross/Deflection of the Index can show direction going forward #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look for higher ATHs going forward, while as Bears seek life below the Tenkan Sen #W2.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside Down, unDone - Week 2 of January 2015.
















    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




    Patterns:
    • November and December 2014 candles on Month screen #M1, form a 'Bearish Engulfing' with a close at 8283 #M1.
    • Bulls start, 1 Jan 2015, with a close at 8284, and preempt a 'three outside down' for now.
    • Previous week's Candle on the Medium Term Screen i.e. the 'High Wave' produces a Bullish Continuation for the Index #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index finds support, at the January Pivot.
    • Day Channel's blue mid-line, was again the resistance zone.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, makes a Bullish deflection earlier in the week, keeping above 8151, giving the Bulls a run up #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA cross bullishly below the zero line - histogram ticks above zero line  #D2.
    • STS makes a bounce near the over bought line #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls regain full control of the Medium Term while Bears fail to take advantage of the Bearish Engulfing for now #M1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • 'Bearish Engulfing' on the Monthly Charts becomes a 'Three Outside Down', if January Closes below 8283 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
    • Bulls start 2015 with a close at 8284 followed by a 100+ point rally the next day. Bears have all of January 2015 to get index below 8283 #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bears want to break below this week, are the Weekly 50 SMA (8317) and Wall for January (8174) #M1.
    • Resistances that the Bulls want to get above, are the Day Channel's blue mid-line #D1, and the previous All Time High (ATH).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
    • Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW will continue, if index closes the week above 8212 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS, moving below the overbought, would pause the 3+ quarter long Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above 8283, Bulls intend to deny the Bears the advantage, or a Long Term 'Three Outside Down' #W1.
    Bears see life below 8212, with a shot at getting below the October'14 low on the EOD #D1.



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Break - Week 2 of January 2015.








    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls leave the Tenkan Sen behind, earlier the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflected bullishly #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
    The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen is also steady #W2


    Wrap: Index pops out of the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen range 
    #W2



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' converging will be bad for the Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more weeks #W1.
    Bears seek to move the Tenkan Sen below the Kijun Sen and take out the last Index low #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls Seek life above the last All Time High, whereas Bears look at moving the index below the 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range and heading towards the Kumo 
    #W2.