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Monday, February 2, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Déjà vu? - Week 1 of February 2015.

















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bear hope stay up, after the last three Monthly Candles now make a 'Three Inside Down' - #M1.
  • Index closes below the 5 EMA on the Monthly Charts, after about 3 years - see pink arrow #M3 - and cause of the Déjà vu.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close the index just above the MVWAP 34  on the EOW #W1 -  Bears manage a close below the long term 5 EMA #M1 - after around 3 years above it.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen remains Bearishly Crossed  #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 slides below the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears trigger a Long Term Three Inside Down #M1.
    Bulls hold on, above the medium term MVWAP 34 #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears produce a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 on the Long Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    • A failed 'Three inside down', which we studied about three years ago (here and here) - was seen when the Index slipped below the 5 EMA last time (pink arrow #M3). Exact set-up seen now - so that is worth a study #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1 and the Monthly 13 SMA (1962), are supports the Bulls look to keep above, this week.
    • 2013 (5 EMA on the Month Chart #M1) is a key resistance, which Bears would want to stay below.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bearishly as long as the index is below 2098 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, cheers the Bears #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls hope History would repeat itself, and another Bull run would emanate from the current set-up #M1.
    Bears seek to use their advantage this time, and keep below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.




    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Back in Range - Week 1 of February 2015.








    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index slips below the Tenkan Sen into the 'Tenkan Sen to Kijun Sen' range #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen flat and gap steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap flat #W3.
    Chikou Span close to Price line #W1.


    Wrap: Bears bring index below the Tenkan Sen  #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo #W2.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
    Chikou Span Cross/Deflection of the Index can show direction going forward #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to get above the Tenkan Sen, the Bear's target life below the Kijun Sen Sen #W2. Both look to break out of the current range.




    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top (about time) - Week 1 of February 2015.














    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)



    Patterns:
    • Index reaches the Top of the Weekly Channel - we have been waiting on this channel from April 2014 (post) #W1. 
    • Bulls pull index up to  a new ATH in Jan'15, engulfing the Dec'14 candle #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bears get their wish as the Index closes below the 5 EMA on the Day Chart #D1.
    • Bulls return, from the R2 on the Jan 2015 pivot #M1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, stay crossed Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after meeting the mark R2 on the January Pivot, fall hard, to below the Daily 5 EMA #M1. 
    Bears hold off Index, at the Weekly Channel's Top #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Channel Top resistance of the Medium Term Channel, perks up Bear hopes #W1.
    • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, becoming a Three Outside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to be watched for #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the current ATH (8997) and the Wall for February 8952.
    • Support Levels that the Bears would love to get below, are 8623 (5 EMA on the Weekly Charts) and 8456 (13 SMA on the Weekly Charts).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS, staying above the overbought line, demonstrates the Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying below the Daily 5 EMA, Bears seek to get stronger and get back some more lost ground.
    Bulls look forward to a Three Outside Up triggering, with a February Close above 8809 #M1.




    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Breakout Pause - Week 1 of February 2015.








    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index  after improving on last ATH - goes red for a pause #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap steady and rising #W3.
    The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady and the lines also climb #W2


    Wrap: Index post breaks out, from the range, around the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen - makes a pause 
    #W2



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more months #W1.
    Bears seek to get the Kijun Sen above the Tenkan Sen and take out the last Index low #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls Seek new All Time Highs (ATH), whereas Bears look at moving the index below the 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range 
    #W2.