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Monday, February 9, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - History Repeats - Week 2 of February 2015.

















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index closed last month below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, this sub 5 EMA close occurred after about 3 years - see pink arrow #M3 - however History repeats as Bulls come back with a green month #M1.
  • Bear hope up, as Month Charts see a 'Three Inside Down' - #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close the index just above the 13 SMA on the weekly charts, after taking off from the MVWAP 34  on the same chart #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen, remain Bearishly Crossed  #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 around the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears trigger a Long Term Three Inside Down last month #M1.
    Bulls come back with a long green candle for February - History repeats? #M3.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears produce a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 on the Long Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    • A failed 'Three inside down', which we studied about three years ago (here and here) - was seen when the Index slipped below the 5 EMA, the last time (pink arrow #M3). Exact set-up seen now - so that is worth a study #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1 and the Monthly 5 EMA (2013), are supports the Bulls look to keep above, this week.
    • 2050 (13 SMA on the Week Chart #W1) and 2080 are levels, which Bears would want to stay below.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bearishly as long as the index is below 2080 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, cheers the Bears #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls hope History would repeat itself in February, and another Bull run would emanate from the current set-up #M1.
    Bears seek get back below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, to prevent the above.




    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Yo Yo at the Tenkan - Week 2 of February 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index Yo Yos at the Tenkan Sen, for the 4th week #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen flat and gap steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap narrows drastically #W3.
    Chikou Span bounces of near the Price line #W1.


    Wrap: Index back above the Tenkan Sen  #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bear journey back to the Kumo, hemmed by the Kijun Sen #W2.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
    Chikou Span Deflection off the Index, shows the Bears losing the advantage #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen, the Bear's target life below the Kijun Sen Sen #W2. Both look to break out of the current range.




    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top Resistance - Week 2 of February 2015.













    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




    Patterns:
    • The Top of the Weekly Channel - which we had been waiting on from April 2014 (post) keeps the Bulls down #W1. 
    • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, becoming a Three Outside Up, still some distance away #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bears get 5 in a row, as all days of last week, see the Index closing below the 5 EMA on the Day Chart #D1.
    • Bulls get support on the Monthly Pivot #M1 and the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, stay crossed Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls find support at the Monthly Pivot after our long watched Weekly Channel Top resists the current up-move #M1. 
    Bears prevent a Three outside Up possibility, by keeping the index below 8809  #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Channel Top resistance of the Medium Term Channel, important for Bears #W1.
    • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, becoming a Three Outside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to be watched for #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the Wall for February 8952 and the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1.
    • Support Levels that the Bears would seek get below, are 8636 (5 EMA on the Weekly Charts) and 8480 (13 SMA on the Weekly Charts).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS, staying above the overbought line, demonstrates the Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying below the Daily 5 EMA, Bears seek to get stronger and get below the EOD channel's Mid-line #D1
    Bulls look forward to a Three Outside Up triggering, with a February Close above 8809 #M1.




    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Breakout Paused - Week 2 of February 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index  goes red for the second week, giving the Bears hope of reaching the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
    The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows #W2


    Wrap: Index heads back towards the range (around the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen) - with another red week 
    #W2



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more months #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen set to cross bearishly if current rate of fall, continues for the next few weeks #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to get back to the All Time Highs (ATH), whereas Bears look at moving the index below the 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range 
    #W2.