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Monday, February 16, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - History Repeats its rewards - Week 3 of February 2015.















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index closed last month below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, this sub 5 EMA close occurred after about 3 years - see pink arrow #M3 - however History repeats and rewards the alert Bull, as Bulls come back with a green February (to date) #M1.
  • Bear hope on, as Month Charts have a 'Three Inside Down' - #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close the index just above previous ATH (All Tiem High), after taking off from the MVWAP 34  on the weekly chart #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the short term screen, is Bullishly Crossed  #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is above the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears trigger a Long Term Three Inside Down last month #M1.
    Bulls learn from History and reach the ATH with a long green candle for February #M3.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears produce a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 on the Long Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    • A failed 'Three inside down', which we studied about three years ago (here and here) - was seen when the Index slipped below the 5 EMA, the last time (pink arrow #M3). Exact set-up seen now - so that is worth a study #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1 and the Monthly 5 EMA (2013), are supports the Bears want to get the Index, back to.
    • Current ATH (2097) and EOD Channel Top #D1, are levels, which Bulls would want to get above.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bullishly as long as the index is above 2040 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, cheers the Bears #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls hope History would repeat itself in February, and another Bull run would emanate from the current set-up #M1 and #M3.
    Bears seek get back below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1 by February end, to prevent the above.


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Range - Week 3 of February 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index after the Yo Yo at the Tenkan Sen, for 4 weeks, makes a dash for the ATH #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, flat and gap steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap narrows #W3.


    Wrap: Index moves to near the ATH  #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bear journey back to the Kumo, hemmed by the Kijun Sen #W2.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
    Chikou Span Deflection off the Index, makes the Bears lose the advantage #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs, the Bear's target life below the Kijun Sen Sen #W2. 
    Both look to break out of the current range.




    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside up 'Stop' - Week 3 of February 2015.












    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




    Patterns:
    • The Top of the Weekly Channel - which we had been waiting on from April 2014 (post) kept the Bulls down the previous week, Bulls come back with a green candle closing the week at 8806 #W1. 
    • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, becoming a Three Outside Up, trigger level is at 8809 as studied in earlier weeks #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bears use the January close, 8809 as resistance for last week. Bulls get support at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, poised to cross Bullishly if the first trading day of this week, closes above 8760  #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls find support at the 13 SMA #W1, charge up, but fail to make it above Last month's close. 
    Bears again prevent a Three outside Up possibility for now, by keeping the index below 8809  #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Channel Top resistance of the Medium Term Channel, important for Bears #W1.
    • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, becoming a Three Outside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to be watched for #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the Wall for February 8952 and 8809.
    • Support Levels that the Bears would seek get below, are 8696 (5 EMA on the Weekly Charts) and 8507 (13 SMA on the Weekly Charts).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS, staying above the overbought line, demonstrates the Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying strong below the Wall, Bears can still get back into the game for the month.
    Bulls look forward to a Three Outside Up triggering, with a February Close above 8809 #M1 and some new ATHs (All Time Highs) in the meanwhile.



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Support - Week 3 of February 2015.










    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index  finds support even as Bears are not able to take it below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
    The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows further #W2


    Wrap: Index bounces of the Tenkan Sen - Gap between Tenkan Send and Kijun Sen narrow 
    #W2



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more months #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen set to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly again #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to get back to making All Time Highs (ATH), whereas Bears look at moving the index below the 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range 
    #W2.