TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, March 2, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Deja Vu rewards - Week 1 of March 2015.














Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index closed last month below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, this sub 5 EMA close, occurred after about 3 years - see pink arrow #M3 - however History repeats, as Bulls come back with a green February (rewarding the alert traders) #M1.
  • Bear hope sparks again, as the medium term chart produces a Bearish Harami - #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls do another ATH (All Time High), but index slips down to take support near the 13 SMA on the short term charts #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the short term screen, approach each other #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is in the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears trigger a Medium Term Bearish Harami last week #W1.
    Bulls learn from History #M3 and make new ATHs, with a long green candle for February M1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears produce a 'Bearish Harami' #W1 on the Medium Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere). If this week closes below 2104, bears manage a medium term Three inside down.
    • A failed 'Three inside down', which we studied about three years ago (here and here) - was seen when the Index slipped below the 5 EMA, the last time (pink arrow #M3). Exact set-up was seen last month #M1. So are we having another Bull run ?
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 13 SMA on the EOM, supports the month candle and the 13 SMA on the EOD, supports the action on the day screen #D1. Index comes back from the last ATH.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Short Term Charts poised to cross Bearishly or deflect Bullishly  #D1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, holds some cheer for the Bears #M2.


    Wrap:


    Bulls celebrate a failed three inside down and now look forward to another Bull run #M1, #M3.
    Bears pin their hopes on the Bearish Harami on the medium term charts and a weekly close below 2104 #W1. 





    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Pause - Week 1 of March 2015.





    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    After the Yo Yo at the Tenkan Sen, index makes ATHs and pauses with a red Doji #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, gap steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap steady #W3.


    Wrap: Index makes a new ATH and pauses in a red Doji #W2.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bear hope, is to journey back to the Kumo, when it thins, in a couple of weeks #W2.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
    Chikou Span Deflection off the Index, produces a new ATH for the Bulls #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs, the Bears want to get back to the Kumo #W2. 





    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside up - Week 1 of March 2015.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Feb'15


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Feb'15


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 28 Feb'15



    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)



    Patterns:
    • The Top of the Weekly Channel - which we had been waiting on from April 2014 (post) kept the Bulls down last month, Bulls revisiting the channel top #W1. 
    • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, becomes a Three Outside Up - see last three candles #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index pulls up with a deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD to get above  the January close i.e. 8809 #D1. Wall for February 2015 (8952) was resistance end-week.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, deflect Bullishly mid-week at 8778 #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls make a 3 Outside up #W1
    Bears back to defending the previous ATH (All Time High).




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Channel Top resistance of the Medium Term Channel, important for Bears #W1.
    • Long Term Charts, see a Three Outside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
    • Bullish effect of the Three Outside Up # M1 Versus the Channel Top resistance #W1,  worth a watch.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the EOW channel top #W1 and the ATH 8997.
    • Support Levels that the Bears want to get below, are 8684 (Wall for March 2015) and 8794 (5 EMA on the Weekly Charts).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS, staying above the overbought line, demonstrates the Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to use the long term '3 outside up' #M1, to make new ATHs while the Bears depend on the medium term Channel top resistance, to get below the Wall #W1.




    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Deflection rewards - Week 1 of March 2015.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 27 Feb'15




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


    Index  uses the Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen deflection, to get higher #W2.

    Senkou Span A & B - gap narowsW3.
    The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, widens as in a deflection #W2


    Wrap: Index Higher (
    gets close to the 30K mark on Saturday) - Gap between Tenkan Send and Kijun Sen, widens as in a deflection #W2




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross, with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more months #W1.

    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, deflect bullishly again - study of previous deflections and behaviour of price, after the deflection, is important #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to using the deflection to make a new ATH, whereas Bears look at moving the index below the 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range 
    #W2.