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Monday, March 16, 2015

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Thinning Kumo 2 - Week 3 of March 2015.







Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bears take the index down below the Tenkan Sen, following last couple of red Dojis #W2.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, gap steady #W2.
Senoku Span A & B, gap narrow and steady #W3.


Wrap: Index slips below the Tenkan Sen but Bulls manage to close above it #W2.



Looking Forward into this Week:


Bears eye the Thinning Kumo #W2 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) for an opportunity to break into the Kumo.
Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
Chikou Span at current altitude, can meet up with the price line in a few weeks #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs, Bears eye the Kumo #W2. 



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Evening Star - Week 3 of March 2015.














Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)



Patterns:
  • Previous week's Doji, forms an Evening Star as studied #W1, and Bears slip below the wall. 
  • Bulls have a long term 'Three Outside Up' in progress (last 4 candles) #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • 5 EMA on the EOD #D1, was the constant resistance last week.
  • For the last candle on the EOW chart, the 13 SMA #W1, was the Support (for the previous candle, support was the 5 EMA on this chart ).
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, cross bearishly very early last week #D1.
Indicators:
  • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls make a 3 Outside up and make a new ATH #M1
Bears defend the Weekly Channel top and follow it up with an 'Evening star' #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Last week's Evening Star on the Medium Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active #W1.
  • Channel Top resistance of the Medium Term Channel Top, works well for Bears #W1.
  • Long Term Charts, see a Three Outside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are 8684 (Wall for March 2015 and the medium term 13 SMA (8652).
  • Support Levels that the Bears want to get below, are S1 on the Monthly Pivot #M1 and 8555 (5 EMA on the Monthly Charts).
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently flat #D1.
Indicators:
  • STS, staying above the overbought line, demonstrates the Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


Wrap :
Bulls look to use the '3 outside up' #M1 on the Monthly charts, to get back above the wall. 
Bears depend on the medium term Channel top resistance, and the 'Evening Doji Star', to stay below the Wall #W1.


BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Taken - Week 3 of March 2015.






Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


Index retests the Tenkan Sen after the deflection - as seen in some earlier deflections #W2.

Senkou Span A & B - gap widens W3.
The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, increases #W2


Wrap: Index slips below the Tenkan Sen, after deflection
 #W2




Looking Forward into this Week:


A Bearish, Chikou Span cross, with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more weeks #W1.

Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen had deflected bullishly - study of previous deflections and behaviour of price, after the deflection, continues to be useful #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to getting above the Tenkan Sen, whereas Bears press for life below the 'Kijun Sen'
#W2.