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Monday, April 6, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 inside down and 2068 - Week 2 of April 2015.













Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bulls fail to make a higher high again and close below the channel's bottom line in a repeat performance #D1.
  • March and February candles form a Bearish Harami, with April candle showing red - as of now #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Index found resistance at the Daily MVWAP 34, #D1, while support was at the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen, stay deflected Bullishly as of last week #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is still around the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Index resisted near the Daily MVWAP 34 #D1, takes support at the Long Term 5 EMA #M1.





    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bulls now need to prevent a Long Term Three inside down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere#M1. 
    • Bulls look to History (re-look) #M1 & #M3, and the support at the 5 EMA #M1, for a resumption of the Bull run.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Day Channel's Bottom Line, is the resistance that Bears want to keep below, this week also. 
    • Bulls seek to keep above the support at the 5 EMA on the EOM (2052) #M1.
    Moving Averages:
    • Above 2049, the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the Weekly  Charts, would stay deflected Bullishly #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace, would hold some cheer for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bears after triggering a Long term Bearish Harami, look to convert it into a 3 inside down, by closing April below 2068 #M1.
    Bulls trust History #M1 & #M3 and aim to keep above the 5 EMA on the month chart. 



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Thinning Kumo 5 - Week 2 of April 2015.







    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bears again fail to close the week below the Tenkan Sen in the Cash segment (futures did)  #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, gap steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap narrow and steady #W3.
    Thinning Kumo couple of weeks away #W2.


    Wrap: Bears fail to close index below Tenkan Sen as of Thursday last week #W2.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears eye the Thinning Kumo #W2 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) for an opportunity to break into the Kumo.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
    Chikou Span at current altitude, can meet up with the price line only after negotiating the earlier dip to the Kumo #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs, Bears eye the Thinning Kumo to bring the Index down #W2. 


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Nifty Fives - Week 2 of April 2015.













    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Bulls slip above the April Wall (8343) and then close above the April 5 EMA (8534) #M1.
    • Bears get their Long Term 'Bearish Engulfing' followed by a green April candle - see last three candles #M1
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls hit the April pivot #M1 after finding support near the Day channel bottom #D1.
    • The Long Term 5 EMA (8534) was cleared by the Bulls - the Medium Term 5 EMA (8586) for this week, was held by the Bears on the Nifty.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW & EOD, remain crossed bearishly, as of last week #D1 & #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS stays below the over bought line #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bears hold the Nifty at the Weekly 5 EMA #W1 and Monthly Pivot #M1.
    Bulls clear the April Wall and the Monthly 5 EMA #M1 despite a Long Term 'Bearish Engulfing' #M1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Patterns:
    • A Bearish Engulfing is active on the Long Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1. 
    • Above can turn into a Three Outside Down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - April watch.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bears would want to get below this week, are 8343 (Wall for April and the Monthly 5 EMA (8534).
    • Resistance Levels that the Bulls want to get above, are the Weekly 5 EMA (8586) and the Daily 50 SMA #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • Bulls hope to see the TRD, taking support above the 50% Fibo Mark #M2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to clear the Daily 50 SMA #D1, keeping above the Long Term 5 EMA (8534) #M1
    Bears want life below the April Wall and an April close below 8491 (the March Close), triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1. 


    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen taken - Week 2 of April 2015.








    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


    Bear's taste of life below the Kijun Sen is short lived, Bulls peek above the red line #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  #W3, as also the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen steady #W2.
    The Chikou span #W1 bounces at price line, answering the Bull's prayers.


    Wrap: Index just above the Kijun Sen #W2, Bulls get a Chikou Span bounce at Price line
     #W1




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span holding above the Price Line, is a clear relief for Bulls #W1.

    Narrowing gap between the Senkou Span A & B  #W3, as also the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, opens possibility of bullish deflection or bearish cross #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls pray that the Chikou Span stays above the Price line #W1, helping the index stay above the Kijun Sen.

     Bears look to push towards the Kumo once again, with a move below the Kijun Sen #W2.