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Monday, April 27, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - About Triple Tops and ATHs - Week 5 of April 2015.














Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index breaks out of its range and runs into the ATH (All Time High) and makes a Triple Top #D1.
  • March and February candles form a Bearish Harami, with April candle showing green - for most of this month #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Index halts at the ATH #M1 & #D1, while support was around the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen, stay deflected Bullishly again last week #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is still in the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Index again makes a higher high on the Day Chart, Bulls still on top at the ATH with a Third Top #D1.





    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears Struggle to make a Long Term 'Three inside down' after the Bearish Harami - see last three candles #M1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) a Triple top on the Short Term may help (Study Links herehere or elsewhere). 
    • Bulls look to History (re-look) #M1 & #M3, and the support at the 5 EMA #M1, for a resumption of the Bull run.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 5 EMA on the EOW (2095) #W1, is the Index Support that Bears want to get below. 
    • Bulls would push for new ATHs and a month close in the green #D1.
    Moving Averages:
    • If the Index again closes the week above 2066, the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the Weekly  Charts, would stay deflected Bullishly #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace, good for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after reaching the ATH, look for Higher Highs and a resumption of the Bull run #D1.
    Bears after triggering a Long term Bearish Harami, look to convert it into a '3 inside down', by closing April below 2068 #M1, with some help from the Triple Top #D1.




    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Thin Kumo ?! - Week 5 of April 2015.







    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bears climb above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows drastically #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap narrow widens #W3.

    Wrap: Bears close index above the Tenkan Sen, Thin Kumo was ineffective last week #W2.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears eye the Thin Kumo #W2 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) for an opportunity to break into the Kumo.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is next on Bear Agenda, even as the gap between these lines narrows even further #W2.
    Chikou Span at current altitude, can meet up with the price line in a couple of weeks #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs, Bears eye the Thin Kumo to help bring the Index down #W2. 




    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside Down - Week 5 of April 2015.














    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)



    Patterns:
    • Index falls back from the Mid-Line of the Day Channel #D1, and slip out this Channel, even as Bears get their Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' #W1.
    • A Long Term 'Three Outside Down' too, now looks possible - see last three candles #M1
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index falls from the Day channel's mid line #D1, to the 200 SMA.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, remain crossed bearishly #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its Histogram tick into sub-zero #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bears get a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' #W1, and look at the same on the Long Term Screen too #M1.
    Bulls get support at the 200 SMA #D1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:





    Patterns:
    • A Bearish Engulfing is active on the Long Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 
    • Above can turn into a Three Outside Down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 just like it did on the Weekly Charts #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index faces resistance at the April Wall (8343) and the 5 EMA (8525) on the Medium Term Chart #W1. 
    • Support is available at the Month Chart's 13 SMA (8048) and the Day Chart's 200 SMA #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging towards a Death Cross #D1.
    Indicators:
    • Bulls hope that the TRD would take support at the 50% mark #M2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to get above 'The Wall' and clear 8491 to avert a Long Term 3 Outside Down #M1 .
    Bears seek an April close, below 8491 (the March Close), triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 and maybe even a Death Cross (Study) #D1.



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Chikou Span Touch - Week 5 of April 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


    Index below the Kijun Sen #W2, as bears manage a Lower High and almost an even low #W1.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  #W3 increases.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen decreases #W2.
    Chikou Span at the Price line #W1, for the second time this year.


    Wrap: 

    Bears move Index below the Kijun Sen #W2.
    Bulls manage to hold the Chikou Span above the Price Line #W1



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span at current altitude set cross the Price line Bearishly, unless the Bulls manage another deflection  #W1.

    Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, opens possibility of bullish deflection or bearish cross #W2.



    Wrap:

    Bulls aim for life above the Tenkan Sen. 
    Bears look to push towards the Kumo once again, with a Bearish Chikou Span Cross #W2.