TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, May 4, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Stand Off - Week 1 of May 2015.
















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • March and February candles had formed a Bearish Harami, with April candle ending green a Long Term 'Three inside down'  is averted by the Bulls #M1. 
  • Bear resistance at the ATH, sends Index back into the Symmetrical Triangle on the Daily Chart #D1. Bulls manage to close higher than the last low.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index again sees resistance near the ATH #M1 & #D1, while support was around the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen, continue to stay deflected #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is in the 60s now #W2.

    Wrap:
    Index again makes a higher low on the Day Chart, Bulls still on top, but back inside the Symmetrical Triangle #D1.





    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears fail to make a Long Term 'Three inside down' after the Bearish Harami - see last 4 candles #M1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere). 
    • With a higher low in place #D1, bulls look to repeat History (re-look) #M1 & #M3
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 5 EMA on the EOW (2100) #W1, is the Index Support that Bears want to get below. 
    • Bulls seek to clear the ATH resistance by a good margin this time around #D1.
    Moving Averages:
    • Bulls have to close the week above 2107, to ensure that the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the Weekly Charts, do not cross Bearishly #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace, good for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after rebounding from ATH, look for Higher Highs and a resumption of the Bull run #D1.
    Bears after defending the ATH, hope to close the week below the 2107, to get back into the game.




    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Thin Kumo Drags - Week 1 of May 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 




    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index stays above the Tenkan Sen after Bulls manage a last day pull back #W2.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows further #W2 - one for the Bears.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap narrow widens some more #W3 - one for the Bulls.

    Wrap: Index just above the Tenkan Sen, Thin Kumo and its drag on the index shows #W2.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears eye the Thin Kumo #W2 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) for an opportunity to break into the Kumo.
    Cross of Tenkan Sen, to below the Kijun Sen, is next on Bear Agenda, even as their gap closes #W2.
    Chikou Span at current altitude, can meet up with the price line in a couple of weeks #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs, Bears eye the Thin Kumo to help bring the Index down #W2. 


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Support, Pullback & Trend - Week 1 of May 2015.














    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Long Term 'Three Outside Down' is now triggered- see last three candles #M1
    • Index moves down and takes Support on the Bottom line of the new channel  #D1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index slips below the daily 200 SMA #D1 and takes Support at the weekly 50 SMA #W1 and the S1 of the April Pivot.#M1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, remain crossed bearishly #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its Histogram tick into sub-zero. Histogram goes flat for the last 3 days #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bears make a Long Term 'Three Outside Down' #W1. Change the 'Trend' to Down and control the Short and Medium Term Screens.
    Bulls get some support at three critical points.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • A Pull Back (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to the old Day Channel's green bottom,  is on this week's wish list, for the Bulls #D1. 
    • A Three Outside Down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index faces resistance at the Day Chart's 200 SMA #D1 and the 5 EMA (8411) on the Medium Term Chart #W1. 
    • Support is available, at the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) 'of the 2011 low to the ATH'  #W1 and the May Wall (8181).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging in to a Death Cross #D1.
    Indicators:
    • Bulls hope that the TRD would take support at the 50% mark #M2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to stay above 'The Wall' and break into the green bottom of the Day Channel #D1 .
    Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - want to keep the momentum going and target the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040), as marked on the Week Chart #W1. 


    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Chikou Span Cross?! - Week 1 of May 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


    Index below the Kijun Sen #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  #W3 decreases #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen decreases #W2.
    Chikou Span into the Price line #W1, looks to cross Bearishly.


    Wrap: 

    Bears move Index below the Kijun Sen and are poised to manage a Bearish Chikou Span Cross #W1.
    Bulls take solace that, all the 3 Red Crosses on the screen are 'Weak' as they occur above the Kumo, i.e. in Bull territory #W1.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span is into the Price line, set to cross in Bearishly #W1.

    Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, makes a bullish deflection or bearish cross, imminent #W2.
    Bull hope rests on staying above the Kumo #W2.



    Wrap:

    Bulls fight to stay above the Kumo, in Bull territory, as all the Red Crosses on the Screen are deemed 'weak'. 
    Bears look to push into the Kumo, with a Bearish Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen Cross #W2.