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Monday, May 11, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls Stand - Week 2 of May 2015.













Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Ascending Triangle formed with the ATH line and the Day Channel's bottom keeps index hedged in #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index again sees resistance near the ATH #M1 & #D1, while support was around the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen, continue to stay deflected bullishly #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is around the 60s now #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls struggle to get above the ATH #D1, while the Bears fail to make a significant lower low - position wise its still advantage Bulls.





    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Ascending Triangle on the Day Chart worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    • With a higher low in place #D1, bulls look to repeat History (re-look) #M1 & #M3
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 5 EMA on the EOM (2063) #M1, is the Index Support that Bears want to get below. 
    • Bulls seek to clear the ATH line, by a good margin this week #D1.
    Moving Averages:
    • Bulls have to close this Monday above 2113, to keep the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA on the Daily Charts  #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace, good for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls, stuck inside an ascending triangle, look for a breakout and a resumption of the Bull run #D1.
    Bears after defending the ATH, hope to close the week below 2063, to get back into the game.


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Support - Week 2 of May 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 




    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index finds support at the Kijun Sen and stays above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows further #W2 - one for the Bears.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap narrow some more #W3 - one for the Bulls.

    Wrap: Index above the Tenkan Sen, Thin Kumo holds the index below the ATH #W2.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears eye the Thin Kumo #W2 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) for an opportunity to break into the Kumo.
    Cross of Tenkan Sen, to below the Kijun Sen, is next on Bear wishlist, even as their gap closes #W2.
    Chikou Span at current altitude, can meet up with the price line in a couple of weeks #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs, Bears eye the Thin Kumo to help bring the Index down #W2. 


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 76.8% Fibo - Week 2 of May 2015.














    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - keep the momentum going and meet up with the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace 'of the 2011 low to the ATH' shown on the Week Chart #W1. 
    • Bulls after a minor Pull-back to Channel bottom early in the week, and reversion to down trend thereafter, produce a weekly candle that resembles a 'High Wave' #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index takes support at the 76.8% Fibo retrace #W1 and the Mid Line of the Medium Term Channel. 
    • Resistance was around the Weekly 5 EMA, on Index Pull-back to Channel Bottom #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Monthly charts, are close enough for a Bullish deflection or a Bearish cross #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD makes a lower low while its Histogram ticks up #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bears reach the Mid-line of the Medium Term Chart after returning from the Top a couple of months ago #W1..
    Bulls fight back to produce a 'High Wave' candle for last week, and close above the Wall #W1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • A proper Pull-Back (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) towards the old Day Channel's green bottom,  is again on the wish list, of the Bulls #D1. 
    • A Three Outside Down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart.
    • The High Wave candle\s effect on this week's action is worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls face resistance at the Day Chart's 200 SMA #D1 and the 13 SMA (8525) on the Medium Term Chart #W1. 
    • Support is available, at the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) 'of the 2011 low to the ATH' and the Mid-line of the Medium Term Chart  #W1 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • Bulls hope that the TRD would take support at the 50% mark, this month #M2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to stay above 'The Wall' and break into the green bottom of the Day Channel #D1 .
    Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - want to keep the momentum going to again break, and stay below, the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) #W1. 




    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Bounce - Week 2 of May 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


    Index below the Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen & Chikou Span #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  decreases #W3.
    Tenkan Sen crosses below Kijun Sen #W2.


    Wrap: 

    Bears achieve a Chikou Span Cross and Bearish Tenkan Sen-Kijun Sen Cross #W1 &W2.
    Bulls manage to take support at the Kumo with a neat Bounce #W1.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span can recross the Price line Bullishly, if this Bounce lasts long enough #W1.

    Narrowing gap between the Senkou Spand A &B, makes a bullish deflection or bearish cross, near #W3.
    Bull hope rests on staying above the rather thick Kumo (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W2.



    Wrap:

    Bulls fight to stay above the thick Kumo, in Bull territory, as all the Red Crosses on the Screen are deemed 'weak'. 
    Bears look to push into the Kumo, with the Bearish Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen Cross helping them along #W2.