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Monday, May 18, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - ATH Nudge - Week 3 of May 2015.
















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Ascending Triangle formed with the ATH line and the Day Channel's bottom keeps index hedged in, even as it nudges this line last week #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index sees resistance at ATH #M1 & #D1, while support was around the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen, continue to stay deflected bullishly #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is back to the 50s now #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls struggle to get above the ATH #D1, while the Bears fail to make a significant lower low - position wise it remains advantage Bulls.





    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Ascending Triangle on the Day Chart worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    • Bulls look to repeat History (re-look) #M1 & #M3, and seek to break-out and stay above the Day Channel Top #D1 to help that cause.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 5 EMA on the EOW (2112) #W1, is the Index Support that Bears want to get below. 
    • Bulls seek to clear the ATH line and the Day Channel top line, this week #D1.
    Moving Averages:
    • Bulls have to close this Week above 2077, to keep the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA on the Weekly Charts  #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace, good for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls, stuck inside an ascending triangle, look for a breakout and a resumption of the Bull run #D1.
    Bears after hedging in the Bullshope to close the week below 2077, to get back into the game.



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Support - Week 3 of May 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 




    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    After the Index found support at the Kijun Sen previously, it takes off from the Tenkan Sen last week #W2.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen widens #W2 - advantage Bulls.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap steady #W3.

    Wrap: Index shoots above the Tenkan Sen, Bears hold it at the ATH.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears eye the Thin Kumo #W2 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) for an opportunity to break into the Kumo.
    Cross of Tenkan Sen, to below the Kijun Sen, is next on Bear wishlist #W2.
    Chikou Span at current altitude, can meet up with the price line in a couple of months #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs, Bears eye the Thin Kumo to help bring the Index down #W2. 



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 76.8% Fibo Supports - Week 3 of May 2015.















    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - touch the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace 'of the 2011 low to the ATH' #W1 and keep the index below the daily 200 SMA #D1. 
    • Bulls make a minor Pull-back to new Day Channel's mid-line #D1, then close above the weekly 50 SMA, and produce another weekly 'High Wave' candle #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index takes support at the 76.8% Fibo retrace #W1 and the mid-line of the Medium Term Channel to close above the 50 SMA #W1. 
    • Resistance was around the Weekly 5 EMA #W1, and the new Day Channel's mid-line #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Monthly charts, are close enough for a Bullish deflection or a Bearish cross #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD crosses its MA and its Histogram ticks above the zero #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bears take support the Mid-line of the Medium Term Chart with a green week, after returning from the Top a couple of months ago #W1..
    Bulls fight back to produce another 'High Wave' candle, and close above the Wall and the 50 SMA #W1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • A proper Pull-Back (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) towards the old Day Channel's green bottom,  is again on the wish list, of the Bulls #D1. 
    • A Three Outside Down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart.
    • The twin 'High Wave' candle's effect on this week's action is worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls face resistance at the Day Chart's 200 SMA #D1 and the 13 SMA (8468) on the Medium Term Chart #W1. 
    • Support is available, at the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) 'of the 2011 low to the ATH' and the weekly 50 SMA (8232) #W1 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • Bulls hope that the TRD would take support at the 50% mark, this month #M2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to stay above 'The Wall' and break into the green bottom of the Day Channel #D1 .
    Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - want to keep the momentum going to again break, and stay below, the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) #W1. 



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Bounce ! - Week 3 of May 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


    Index stays below the Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen & Chikou Span #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  decreases #W3.
    Tenkan Sen is below the Kijun Sen #W2.


    Wrap: 

    Bears hold on to a Chikou Span Cross and Bearish Tenkan Sen-Kijun Sen Cross #W1 &W2.
    Bulls find support at the Kumo with a Bounce and a green candle #W1.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span can recross the Price line Bullishly, if this Bounce lasts long enough #W1.

    Narrowing gap between the Senkou Spand A &B, makes a bullish deflection or bearish cross, possible #W3.
    Bull hope rests on staying above the rather thick Kumo (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W2.



    Wrap:

    Bulls fight to stay above the thick Kumo, in Bull territory, as all the Red Crosses on the Screen are deemed 'weak'. 
    Bears look to push into the Kumo, with the Bearish Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen Cross helping them along #W2.