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Monday, June 1, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bear Nose in - Week 1 of June 2015.













Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index throws back to the Ascending Triangle's Top line and slides below it, staying  within the Day Channel #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index was resisted near the ATH (All Time High) #D1, while support was around the 13 SMA on the week chart #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, in the medium term view #W1, continues to stay deflected bullishly.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is in the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls fail to keep the index above the ascending triangle #D1 and lose control of the Short term screen, while the Bears could not take it below the 5 EMA on the EOM for the 4th month running #M1.





    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Ascending Triangle and its behaviour, on the Day Chart, worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    • Bulls keep the index above the Long term 5 EMA, for the 4th month running. The last two month candles #M1, are green and resemble spinning tops (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 5 EMA on the Month Chart (2077) #M1, is the Index Support that Bears want to get below. 
    • Bulls seek to clear the ATH line #M1 with a clear break out from the Ascending Triangle #D1. 
    Moving Averages:
    • Bulls by closing this Week above 2058, get to keep the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA on the Weekly Charts  #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace, good for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls, back inside the ascending triangle, look for a breakout and a resumption of the Bull run #D1.
    Bears after taking over the short term screen, look for a close below 2077 to stay in the red #M1.


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Holds - Week 1 of June 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 




    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    After the Index made a red ATH, it fell to the Tenkan Sen Support last week #W2.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap steady #W3.
    Chikou Span at the Price line #W1.

    Wrap: Index takes support at the Tenkan Sen, Chikou span reaches the Price line #W1.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears eye the dwindling Thin Kumo #W2 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) for an opportunity to dive into the Kumo.
    Cross of Tenkan Sen, to below the Kijun Sen, is next on Bear wishlist #W2.
    Chikou Span set for a Bullish deflection or Bearish Cross at the Price line #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen, Bears look for a Bearish Cross of the Chikou Span and the Price line #W2. 




    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pin Drops - Week 1 of June 2015.












     

    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

     

    Patterns:
    • Index, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down earlier - produces a Bullish Harami with the last two candles #M1.
    • Week Chart sees a Pinbar as part of a Bearish Harami - see last two candles #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index closes 10 points above the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace (8424) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH'  #D1  and at the daily 50 SMA #D1.
    • Earlier in the week, the weekly 50 SMA #W1, was approached and the congestion area having the daily 5 EMA, 13 SMA and 200 SMA, overcome #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Monthly charts, gets closer for a Bullish deflection or a Bearish cross #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA stay below the zero line and its Histogram stays above this line #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after a deep dive below the 38.2% of the move from the 'ATH to the May 2015 bottom' manage to close just above this line #D1.
    Bears defend the daily 50 SMA #D1 and halt the index, near the blue middle line of the new Day Channel #D1..





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • A Bullish Harami (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart. A Bearish Harami (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1 is active on the medium term chart. Watch for the Three inside 'up or down' forming next.
    • A Pinbar (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1 is apparent on the weekly chart.
    • The Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the May 2015 bottom and its retrace possibilities are worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls face resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace (8686) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH'  #D1  Support is available, at the Day Channel's bottom line #D1 and the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace (8040) 'of the 2011 low to the ATH'  #W1 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term charts would cross Bullishly with a weekly close above 8606 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • Bulls hope that the TRD would rise from support at the 50% mark this month #M2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to stay above the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace (8424) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH' and close above 8606 #D1 .
    Bears, holding the Daily 50 SMA seek to get to below the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040)  as marked #W1. 



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Chikou Span Spurn - Week 1 of June 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


    Index stays below the Kijun Sen,  closes above the Tenkan Sen #W2 and is spurned 
    at the Chikou Span #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  low and steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen is also steady #W2.


    Wrap: 

    Bears hold on to a Chikou Span Cross and Bearish Tenkan Sen-Kijun Sen Cross #W1 &W2.
    Bulls find support near the Kumo and close above the Tenkan Sen #W1.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span can recross the Price line Bullishly, if this Bounce lasts long enough #W1.

    Narrowing gap between the Senkou Spand A &B, makes a bullish deflection or bearish cross, possible #W3.
    Bull hope rests on staying above the rather thick Kumo (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W2.



    Wrap:

    Bulls fight to stay above the thick Kumo, in Bull territory, as all the Red Crosses on the Screen are deemed 'weak'. 
    Bears look to push into the Kumo, with the Bearish Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen Cross and Chikou Span's position helping them along #W2.