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Monday, August 10, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Third Time's a Charm - Week 2 of August 2015.













Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami by the June and July candles fail to reward the Bulls - Third attempt at breaking below the 200 SMA on the Day charts in progress #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index chose 2113 as the resistance last week - the daily 200 SMA provided exact support #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, in the medium term #W1, remain in a bearish deflection as the index closed below our mark, 2113, last week.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, meanders in the middle of the range for some time now #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears stuck at the 200 SMA for the third time #D1. 
    Bears retain control of the Short term screen with a close below all daily MAs #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bullish Harami on the Long Term Charts is active - has potential to turn into a Three inside up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) depending on the September candle #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Daily 200 SMA and the Day channel bottom #D1, are again the supports that Bulls want want to stay above. Index has resistance at 2116. 
    Moving Averages:
    • On the EOW, 5 EMA will stay deflected, off the 13 SMA bearishly, if this week closes below 2116 #W1,
    Indicators:
    • STS 34, stuck in the mid lands #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls, want to use current supports to get above 2116 #M1
    Bears again hope for a lower low below the Daily 200 SMA #D1 and a break below the Day channel bottom.


    Europe CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Yields - Week 2 of August 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Index bounce from the Kijun Sen, yields another green week, for the bulls attempting a run to the ATH #W2.
    Chikou Span, stays way above the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Bulls get more out of the bounce from the Kijun Sen #W2. 

    Despite the Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen cross, Bears fail to get the index lower #W2.


    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Bulls need to keep the Chikou Span well above the Price line, to keep their advantage #W1.
    Index closing above the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen, (both strong supports last week) is good for Bulls #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide, making a thick Kumo - and a strong support to come #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen still in a bearish cross (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) - Bears still in the hunt #W2.



    Wrap:

    Index staying above the Tenkan Sen #W2, and Chikou Span above the Price line #W1, good reason for a Bull run to the ATH.
    Taking advantage of the Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen while it lasts #W2,, is the Bear hope.


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bull Crux - Week 2 of August 2015.














    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

     

    Patterns:
    • The Index takes off from the August Wall (8424) to retest the Right Shoulder of a possible Head & Shoulder formation on the Day Charts #D1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index takes off from Support at the August Wall (8424), and runs into resistance around the last high (RS) on the Day Chart #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are crossed bullishly on all three screens.
    Indicators:
    • On the Day chart, MACD is at its MA, histogram ticks into zero #D2.

    Wrap:

    Dominant Bulls are at a crux, but well above all the MAs that we track.
    Bears put their trust on a possible H&S reversal #W1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • H&S pattern on the Day Chart is a possibility worth a study #D1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) - Neckline for activation of the pattern is currently around 7900 (edited).
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls have support  at the S1 of the month pivot (8346) #M1, Resistance is at the same pivot's R1 (8686) #M1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross is active as long as the 50 SMA stays below the 200 SMA - gap between these MAs, is again flat this week #D1.
    Indicators:
    • Bulls hope that the TRD would take off upwards, after settling above the 50% mark last couple of months #M2.


    Wrap :
    Bears hope that a journey to 8346 (edited) would start, with a close below the daily 13 SMA (8494 for Monday) #D1.
    Bulls, above all the MAs that we track, want to continue upwards, from the RS to the ATH (All Time High) #D1.


    China SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Holding Lows - Week 2 of August 2015.





    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Chikou Span steadies above the Price line #W1.
    Bulls find some life and hold index above last month's low #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen also steady #W2.


    Wrap: 

    After the Bearish Kijun Sen Cross, Bears fail to take out the previous low, Bulls get a green week after defending last month's low.



    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Index closing below the Kijun Sen (its called a 'weak bearish signal' as it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e. above the Kumo) works for the Bears #W2.
    Bears need to get the Chikou Span below the Price line, to maintain edge #W1. 
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B staying wide, makes a thick Kumo and a strong support for the Bulls, when they get there #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen steady -  bullish deflection or bearish cross still on #W2.


    Wrap:

    Getting back above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2, priority for Bulls.
    Bearish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2 along with close below last month's low is what the Bears want.