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Monday, September 7, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Death Cross - Week 2 of September 2015.














Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • The pin bar candle for previous week goes the Bear way. Bears make an 'Opening Black Marubozu' candle last week #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Support was well above the MVWAP 34 as marked on the Month Screen #M1. Resistance for the Index was at the 13 SMA on the Day Chart #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the month screen, crossed over Bearishly at August close #M1.
    • On the Day Charts the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA cross Bearishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, after meandering in the middle of the range for a year #W2, is currently oversold.  

    Wrap:
    Bears helped by the Daily 13 SMA #D1, again attempt to get to the MVWAP34 on the EOM #M1.
    Bulls attempt a higher low #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • 'Opening Black Marubozu' on the Medium Term Charts is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the long term screen (once again) is the support that Bulls want to stay above #M1 . Index has resistance at the Daily MVWAP 34  #D1. 
    Moving Averages:
    • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
    Indicators:
    • TSI slips below the 50% retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls seek to make a higher low and aim for the daily 200 SMA #D1.
    Bears look to force their way below the monthly MVWAP34 #M1.



    Europe CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Holds - Week 2 of September 2015.






    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    After the dive below the Kumo, and close just above it previously, Bears stay above the Kumo and reach out to the Tenakan Sen last week #W2.
    Chikou Span points down, staying below the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steadies #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow, but steadies #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Bulls keep above the Kumo, and make an unsuccessful attempt, at taking the Tenkan Sen #W2. 
    Bears unable to keep below the Kumo previously - manage a red candle last week #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Chikou Span is crossed  below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) #W1.
    Index staying above the Kumo, gives the Bulls a fillip #W2.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B around the last Price point is rather narrow. This means a thin Kumo - and a weak support for the Bulls #W2.
    The narrow gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen, good for Bulls, as a re-cross is easier #W2.


    Wrap:

    Despite a red candle, Bears fail to close inside the Kumo.
    Bulls see the Kumo as the major support from where they can reach the Tenkan Sen #W2.


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears below Neckline - Week 2 of September 2015.













    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

     

    Patterns:
    • The Head & Shoulder formation, that we studied for the past few weeks, saw a tussle at the neckline. Its Advantage Bears as of last week's closing #W1.
    • Control of the 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040), drawn on the EOW screen, was critical last week - as the Bears turned down from this level, to close 300+ points lower #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • The 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM screen was support #M1.   The 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040), drawn on the EOW screen, was resistance #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are crossed bearishly, on all three Screens, for the past couple of weeks.
    Indicators:
    • On the Month chart, TRD at the 39x% mark #M2.

    Wrap:

    Bears close 300+ points below the neckline of the bearish H&S pattern we were studying, and get control of all three screens.
    Bulls hold the index just inside the new Day Channel #D1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Bearish H&S pattern reaching target #W1, remains a possibility (Study Links herehere or elsewhere), breaking of the Day Channel bottom #D1, is critical this week #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls have support at the 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM #M1, Resistance is at the blue Mid-line of the Day Channel #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active and thriving #D1.
    Indicators:
    • The STS, staying below the oversold line, is good for Bears #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bears gaining some momentum, aim to stay below 8040 and drive towards the green bottom line of the Weekly Chart #W1. 
    Bulls, seek a bounce from the Day channel's bottom #D1.