TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, September 21, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Flag - Week 4 of September 2015.












Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • The Pennant is seen on the Day Charts, morphs into a Flag #D1.  
  • A Pin bar forms on the Weekly Charts as a result #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index took support above the 13 SMA on the Day Screen by weekend #D1 - it was resisted by the MVWAP 34 on the Daily Charts #D1 as studied.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the day screen, are again crossed Bullishly by end of last week #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, after meandering in the middle of the range for a year, is currently attempting a bounce off the oversold line #W2.  


    Wrap:
    Bulls give up their initial advantage to the Bears, by end week, to produce a Pin bar #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • 'Flag' on the Day Chart is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    • 'Pin bar' on the Weekly Charts also worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the long term screen (once again) is the support that Bulls want to stay above #M1. Index has resistance at the Orange Bottom of the Weekly Channel  #W1. 
    Moving Averages:
    • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
    Indicators:
    • TSI slips below the 50% retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls and Bears, now seek resolution of the range defined by the Flag #D1, this week.



    Europe CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Pull - Week 4 of September 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)



    Bears close the week inside the Kumo #W2.
    Chikou Span crossed below the Tenkan Sen, well below the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow, but steady #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Bulls lose advantage, as Bears close inside the Kumo last week #W2.


    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Chikou Span is crossed  below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) #W1.
    Index getting above the Kumo, is the next Bull hope #W2.
    The narrow gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen, good for Bulls, as a re-cross is easier #W2.


    Wrap:

    Bears on top, with the index floating into the Kumo #W2. Bulls have this week, to manage a bounce out of it.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pullback to Neckline - Week 4 of September 2015.











    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Bulls pullback to the Neckline of the Head & Shoulder (H&S) formation #W1, after bouncing off the Day Channel's Bottom previously #D1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • The 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOW  was resistance, as was the H&S Neckline #W1. The 5 EMA on the EOD was constant support #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOD, crossed over Bullishly at our mark on Monday last, and remains so by week close #D1.
    Indicators:
    • On the Month chart, TRD now hangs above the Fibonacci 38.2% mark #M2.

    Wrap:

    Bears force a stop at the H&S pattern's neckline #W1.
    Bulls claim another green week and take control of the Short Term Screen #D1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bearish H&S pattern reaching target #W1, remains a possibility if the Neckline is defended by the Bears (Study Links herehere or elsewhere). 
    • Pullback and its implications need watching (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls look to take support at the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1 and break the resistance at the 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040) shown on the EOW (arrow) #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active and thriving #D1.
    Indicators:
    • The STS, staying below the oversold line, is good for Bears #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to maintain the bullish cross of the 5 EMA & 13 SMA #D1, and break above H&S pattern's neckline this week #W1.
    Bears after applying brakes to the index at the H&S pattern's neckline #W1, seek a red week. 


    China SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Float - Week 4 of September 2015.





    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    Bulls unable to keep up with the rising Kumo, Bears have edge as Last Week's red candle floats into the Kumo  #W1.

    Chikou Span turns down below the Price line and the Tenkan Sen #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, narrow to touch point, steady #W3.


    Wrap: 
    After the bearish Chikou Span cross, Bears float into the Kumo #W1.
    Bulls take solace in the steady gap at the Senkou Span A & B #W3.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bearish Kumo break-in, progressing - bad news for Bulls they do not pull above Kumo #W2.

    Bearish Chikou Span Cross (its called a 'weak bearish signal' as it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e. above the Kumo) in danger of a re-cross #W2.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B at #W3, is near closing - a Bullish Deflection or Bearish Cross Possible.



    Wrap:
    A Bearish Senoku Span cross & life inside the Kumo #W3, are what the Bears need, to keep their advantage.
    Getting back above the Kumo #W2, with a re-cross by the Chikou Span to above the Price line #W1, is the Bull strategy for survival.