TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, September 28, 2015

US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Flag 2 - Week 5 of September 2015.










Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • The Flag seen on the Daily Chart, yet to resolve completely - advantage Bears as of last week #D1.  
  • The Pin bar that formed the previous week, produces a long red candle #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index took support around the previous low #D1 - it was resisted by the 13 SMA on the Daily Charts #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the day screen, is now crossed Bearishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, after meandering in the middle of the range for a year, is struggling to make bounce off the oversold line #W2.  


    Wrap:
    Bears regain control of all three screens by end week, Bulls hold off at the last low #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the long term screen (once again) is the support that Bulls want to stay above #M1. Index has resistance at the Orange Bottom of the Weekly Channel  #W1. 
    Moving Averages:
    • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
    Indicators:
    • TSI slips below the 50% retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls and Bears, now seek full resolution of the range defined by the Flag #D1, this week.




    Europe - CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Crash - Week 5 of September 2015.





    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    After the Bears closed the week inside the Kumo, Index crashes below it and recovers to close inside the Kumo again #W2.
    Chikou Span finds support around the Kijun Sen - helping the Bulls come back #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow, but steady #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Bears crash the index way below the Kumo, Bulls hold the Chikou Span at the Kijun Sen and make a come back #W2.


    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Chikou Span is crossed  below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) and is finding support at the Kijun Sen #W1.
    Index getting out of the Kumo with a Bullish Breakout, is the next Bull hope #W2.
    The narrow gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen, good for Bulls, as a re-cross is easier #W2.


    Wrap:

    Bears on top, with the index floating into the Kumo #W2. 
    Bulls after their comeback, need to get above of it.



    India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave Stall - Week 5 of September 2015.











    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Index falls by 300 points after the Bull attempt, to clear the mark (76.4% Fibo retrace (8040) shown on the EOW #W1.) stalls around 8020.
    • High wave candle for the week, as Bears come back, settling above the support we studied - the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • The 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOW  was resistance #W1. The 13 SMA on the EOD was clear support #D1.
    • This month's candle, spans the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2008 low' to the 'All Time High' (ATH) and the Month Pivot #M1
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA, remains Bullishly crossed above the 13 SMA on the day charts #D1.
    Indicators:
    • On the Month chart, TRD now hangs above the Fibonacci 38.2% mark #M2.

    Wrap:

    Bears fall sharply at the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2011 low' to the 'All Time High' (ATH) #W1.
    Bulls retain control of the Short Term Screen after a comeback from the daily 13 SMA #D1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bearish H&S pattern reaching target #W1, remains a possibility if the Neckline is held by the Bears (Study Links herehere or elsewhere). 
    • High Wave Candles on the Week and maybe Month Chart needs attention (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance:
    • Support is at 7484, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2008 low' to the 'ATH'  and resistance continues at 8040, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2011 low' to the 'ATH'  #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active, these MAs are diverging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • The STS, crossing above its MA, is good for Bulls #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to hold on to the bullish cross of the 5 EMA & 13 SMA #D1, and break above 8040 #W1
    Bears seek life below 7484.



    China - SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Life- Week 5 of September 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    Chikou Span turns down below the Price line and gets support around the Kijun Sen #W1.
    Bull attempt to bounce out out the Kumo thwarted and index closes in the Kumo again #W2. 
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, narrows further, to touch point #W3.


    Wrap: 
    After the bearish Chikou Span cross, Index floats into the Kumo #W1.
    Bulls use the Chikou Span Support at the Kijun Sen #W1 to make a green week #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bearish Kumo Breakout happens #W2.

    After the Bearish Chikou Span Cross (its called a 'weak bearish signal' as it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e. above the Kumo) support at the Kijun Sen raises Bull hope of a comeback #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B at #W3, is near closing - a Bullish Deflection or Bearish Cross imminent.



    Wrap:
    A Bearish Senoku Span cross & life inside the Kumo #W3, are what the Bears need, to keep their advantage.
    Getting back above the Kumo #W2, with support for the Chikou Span at the Kijun Sen #W1, is the Bull strategy for a comeback.