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Monday, October 5, 2015

US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Hammer - Week 1 of October 2015.










Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Last week's action produced a green 'Hammer' candle #W1.  
  • Index is attempting a Higher Low #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index took support almost at the previous low #D1 - it was resisted by the 5 EMA on the Weekly Charts #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the day screen, poised to deflect Bearishly or Cross Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, after meandering in the middle of the range for a year, is attempting a life off from the oversold line #W2.  


    Wrap:
    Bulls retake control of the short term screen.
    Bears fail to make a lower low #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • 'Hammer' on the Week Chart is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the long term screen #M1 (once again) is the support that Bulls want to stay above. Index has resistance at the 13 SMA on the medium term screen #W1
    Moving Averages:
    • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
    Indicators:
    • TSI flattens below the 50% retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls sense hope and seek to hammer their way to above the 2K mark.
    Bears seek to spend the rest of the month below the MVWAP 34 #D1 and then #M1.


    Europe - CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Hold - Week 1 of October 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    Index again slips out of the Kumo during the week and closes just inside it for the week  #W2.
    Chikou Span finds support exactly at the Kijun Sen - helping the Bulls survive #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow, but steady #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Bears again crash the index, way below the Kumo, Bulls hold the Chikou Span exactly at the Kijun Sen and make a come back #W2.


    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Chikou Span is crossed  below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) and is finding support at the Kijun Sen #W1.
    Index getting above the Kumo with a Bullish Breakout, is the next Bull hope #W2.
    The narrow gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen, good for Bulls, as a re-cross is easier #W2.


    Wrap:

    Bears give up advantage, as with 3 weekly closes inside the Kumo, bulls and bears are now evenly matched.


    India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave Long - Week 1 of October 2015.











    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Index again thwarted at the resistance we studied, the 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040) shown on the EOW #W1. This after a fast up-move from sub 7600.
    • High wave candle forms on the Long Term chart  EOM #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • The 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOW  was resistance #W1. The October Pivot was the nearest support #M1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA, remains Bullishly crossed above the 13 SMA on the day charts  for the third week running #D1.
    Indicators:
    • On the Day chart the  MACD and its MA are bullishly crossed while below the zero line, and the histograms are ticking up #M2.

    Wrap:

    Bulls again unsuccessful, at breaking 8040, the '76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2011 low' to the ATH' for the 6th week in a row #W1. 
    Bears fail to make lower lows #D1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bearish H&S pattern reaching target, remains a possibility if the Neckline (red arrow #W1) is held by the Bears (Study Links herehere or elsewhere). 
    • High Wave Candle on the Month Chart is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance:
    • Support continues at 7484, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2008 low' to the 'ATH'  and resistance continues at 8040, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2011 low' to the 'ATH'  #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active, these MAs are diverging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • The STS, crossing below its MA, is good for Bears #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls seek victory on their 7th attempt at crossing 8040, the '76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2011 low' to the ATH' not unlike Robert the Bruce (link).
    Bears would like to follow the H&S to its target #W1.


    China - SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Chikou Support - Week 1 of October 2015.





    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    Chikou Span turns down below the Price line and gets support exactly at the Kijun Sen #W1.

    Index stays in the Kumo #W2. 
    Senkou Span A & B cross Bearishly #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Despite the bearish Senkou Span cross, Index still floats in the Kumo #W1.
    Bulls use the Chikou Span Support at the Kijun Sen #W1 to avert a slide #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bearish Senoku Span Cross active #W2.

    Kumo gives the Index some support to consolidate #W2.
    Chikou Span supported at the Kijun Sen, gives Bulls hope of a comeback #W1.


    Wrap:
    Bearish Senoku Span cross staying active #W3 is the Bear hope.
    Getting back above the Kumo #W2, with support for the Chikou Span at the Kijun Sen #W1, is the Bull strategy for a comeback.